[Sažetak] Factfulness – Hans Rosling

Ne postoji samo dobro i loše. Samo mrak i svjetlost. Samo bogati i siromašni. Zapad i istok. Crno i bijelo. Između su nijanse. A u tim nijansama krije se istina temeljena na faktima tj. egzaktnim podacima i brojkama. U tim nijansama je većina, suprotno od globalnog mišljenja i medijskih natpisa. Tih nijansi – razina, prema autora, ima četiri.

Autor kroz 10 instinkata s kojima se susrećemo svaki dan, skreće nam pozornost na fakte kojima možemo upravljati svojim osjećajima i poduzetim aktivnostima. Knjiga prepuna fenomenalnih savjeta kako ispravno tumačiti senzacionalističke vijesti i poruke aktivista u cilju donošenja boljih odluka i pogleda na svijet.



“This book is about the world, and how to understand most of it”

“These [set of simple thinking tools] will help you get the big picture right, and improve your sense of how the world works, without you having to learn all the details”

“In the same way, out quick-thinking brains and cravings for drama – our dramatic instincts – are causing misconceptions and an overdramatic worldview”

“Factfulness, like a healthy diet and regular exercise, can and should become part of your daily life. Start to practice it, and you will be able to replace your overdramatic worldview with a worldview based on facts”

“It is [this book] about what you can do about it, and how this will make you feel more positive, less stressed, and more hopeful as you walk out the circus tent and back into the world”

Chapter One – The Gap Instinct

“This chapter is about the first of our ten dramatic instincts, the gap instinct”

“It is about how the gap instinct creates a picture in people’s heads of a world split into two kinds of countries or two kinds of people”

“Through the book you will see how the levels provide a simple way to understand all kinds of things”

“The gap instinct makes us imagine a division where there is just a smooth range, difference where there is convergence, and conflict where there is agreement”

“Averages mislead by hiding a spread (a range of different numbers) in a single number”

“We are naturally drawn to extreme examples, and they are easy to recall”

“The four level framework, the replacement for the overdramatic “divided” worldview, is the first and most important part of the fact-based framework you will learn in this book”

“Factfulness is … recognizing when a story talks about a gap, and remembering that this paints a picture of two separate groups, with a gap in between. The reality if often not polarized at all. Usually the majority is right in the middle, where the gap is supposed to be”

“To control the gap instinct, look for the majority”

Chapter Two – The Negativity Instinct

“This chapter is about the negativity instinct: our tendency to notice the bad more than the good.”

“There are three things going on here: the misremembering of the past; selective reporting by journalists and activists; and the feeling that as long as things are bad it’s heartless to say they are getting better”

“Most thing used to be worse, not better. But it’s extremely easy for humans to forget how things really did used to be”

“We are subjected no never-ending cascades of negative new from across the world”

“Stories about gradual improvements rarely make the front pages even when they occur on a dramatic scale and impact millions of people”

“At the same time, activists and lobbyists skilfully manage to make every dip in the trend appear to be the end of the world, even if the general trend is clearly improving, scaring us with alarmist exaggeration and prophecies”

“When you hear something terrible, calm yourself by asking if there had been an equally large positive improvement would I have heard about that?”

“Factfulness is … recognizing when we get negative news, and remembering that information about bad news is much more likely to reach us”

“To control the negativity instinct, expect bad news”

Chapter Three – The Straight Line Instinct

“But our straight line intuition is not always reliable guide in modern life”

“The best way of controlling the instinct to always see straight lines – whether in relation to population growth or in other situations – is simply to remember that that curves naturally come in lots of different shapes”

“Factfulness is … recognizing the assumption that a line will just continue straight, and remembering that such lines are rare in reality”

Chapter Four – The Fear Instinct

“Critical thinking is always difficult, but it’s almost impossible when we are scared. There’s no room for facts when our minds are occupied by fear”

“The kind of information we seem most likely to process is stories: information that sounds dramatic”

“The media can’t waste time on stories that won’t pass our attention filters”

“Of all our dramatic instincts, it seems to be the fear instinct that most strongly influences what information gets selected by news producers and presented to us consumers”

“For the vast majority of us not blocked by phobias, the fear instinct harms us by distorting our worldview”

“Fears that once helped keep our ancestors alive, today help keep journalists employed”

“The fear instinct is so strong that it can make people collaborate across the world, to make the greatest progress”

“Factfulness is … recognizing when frightening things get our attention, and remembering that these are not necessarily the most risky”

“To control the fear instinct, calculate the risks”

Chapter Five – The Size Instinct

“Getting things out of proportion, or misjudging the size of things, is something that we humans do naturally”

“The two aspects of the size instinct, together with negativity instinct, make us systematically underestimate the progress that has been made in the world”

“To avoid getting things out of proportion you need only two magic tools: comparing and dividing”

“The most important thing you can do to avoid misjudging something’s importance is to avoid lonely numbers. Never, ever leave a number all by itself. Never believe that one number on its own can be meaningful. If you are offered one number, always ask for at least one more. Something to compare it with”

“Whenever I have to compare lots of numbers and work out which are the most important, I use the simplest-ever thinking tool. I look for the largest number. That is all there is to the 80/20 rule”

“Factfulness is … recognizing when a lonely number seems impressive (small or large), and remembering that you could get the opposite impression if it were compared with or divided by some other relevant number”

“To control the size instinct, get things in proportion”

Chapter Six – The Generalization Instinct

“Everyone automatically categorizes and generalizes all the time. Unconsciously. It is not a question of being prejudicial or enlightened. Categories are absolutely necessary for us to function. They give structure to our thoughts”

“If [generalization] can make us assume everything or everyone in one category is similar”

“Factfulness is … recognizing when a category is being used in an explanation, and remembering that categories can be misleading”

“To control the generalization instinct, question your categories”

Chapter Seven – The Destiny Instinct

“The destiny instinct is the idea that innate characteristics determine the destinies of people, countries, religions or cultures. It’s the idea that things are as they are for ineluctable, inescapable reasons: they have always been this way and will never change”

“Cultures, nations, religions, and people are not rooks. They are in constant transformation”

“To control the destiny instinct, don’t confuse slow change with no change, Don’t dismiss an annual change – even an annual change of only 1 percent – because it seems too small and slow”

“To control the destiny instinct, stay open to new data and be prepared to keep freshening up your knowledge”

“Factfulness is … recognizing that many things (including people, countries, religions, and cultures) appear to be constant just because the change is happening slowly, and remembering that even small, slow changes gradually add up to a big change”

“To control the destiny instinct, remember slow change is still change”

Chapter Eight – The Single Perspective Instinct

“We find simple ideas very attractive”

“I love experts, but they have their limitations. First, and most obviously, experts are experts within their own field”

“Sometimes the expert will look around for ways in which their hard won knowledge and skills can be applied beyond what it’s actually useful”

“The world cannot be understood without numbers. But the world cannot be understood with numbers alone”

“Factfulness is … recognizing that a single perspective can limit your imagination, and remembering that it is better to look at problems from many angles to het a more accurate understanding and find practical solutions”

“To control the single perspective, get a toolbox, not a hammer”

Chapter Nine – The Blame Instinct

“The blame instinct is the instinct to find a clear simple reason for why something bad has happened”

“The blame game often reveals our preferences. We tend to look for bad guys who confirm our existing beliefs”

“The blame instinct drives us to attribute more power and influence to individuals then they deserve, for bad or good”

“Factfulness is … recognizing when a scapegoat is being used and remembering that blaming an individual often steals the focus from other possible explanations and blocks our ability to prevent similar problems in the future”

“To control the blame instinct, resist finding a scapegoat”

Chapter Ten – The Urgency Instinct

“The urgency instinct makes us want to take immediate actions on the face of a perceived imminent danger”

“The constant alarms make us numb to real urgency”

“When people tell me we must act now, it makes me hesitate. In most cases, they are just trying to stop me from thinking clearly”

“Fear plus urgency make for stupid, drastic decisions with unpredictable side effects”

“When you are called to action, sometimes the most useful action you can take is to improve the data”

“When a problem seems urgent the first thing to do is not cry wolf, but to organize the data”

“Urgency is one of the worst distorters of our worldview”

“Factfulness is … recognizing when a decision feels urgent and remembering that it rarely is”

“To control the urgency instinct, take small steps”

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